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Conference vs. the Weatherby PDF of Conference vs the Weather and weather statistics for 1888-2012 Every spring
and fall, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (L.D.S. or Mormon
Church) holds a church-wide "general conference" on Temple Square
in Salt Lake City, Utah. The spring conference is usually held during
the first week of April and is called an "annual general conference."
The fall conference is generally held during the first week of October,
and is referred to as a "semi-annual general conference." During the past
several decades, many conference visitors--as well as other Utah residents
and the news media--have often remarked how predictable the weather is
during the periods of L.D.S. general conference. In fact, during one survey
that asked conference visitors what they felt "the typical weather
[was] like during April general conference," some of those interviewed
quoted the Mormon cliche: "When the Saints meet, the Heavens weep!" The fact that
L.D.S. general conference is often associated with wet weather is not
a new perception. For example, the following statement appeared on the
front cover of the Church News of April 13, 1957: "At the close of
another [April] General Conference, thousands of Church members, inspired,
encouraged and refreshed in faith and spirit, leave the Tabernacle grounds
[in Salt Lake City] for their homes in various parts of the country. Typical
'conference weather' prevailed for the 127th annual session, showers and
chill breezes alternating with warm spring sunshine throughout the week."
More recently, the Church News of April 10, 1983, stated: "Year after
year, at least one thing remains consistent about conference weather:
it is inconsistent. Conditions on Temple Square for the 153 Annual General
Conference ranged from overcast on Saturday morning, to quite pleasant
Saturday afternoon, to cold Saturday evening, to miserable all day Sunday."
Just what is "typical conference weather"? Is it usually wet? And just how "pleasant" or "cold" can it get? These questions and others are answered herein--along with additional facts and information relating to the weather and climate of past L.D.S. conferences. Early Conferences
and the Weather (1830-1887) The first "conference"
of the L.D.S. Church was held on June 9, 1830, at Fayette, New York. Twenty-seven
members of the Church attended this conference. From September 1831 through
1847, various spring and fall conferences were held in New York, Ohio,
Missouri, Illinois and Iowa. Although there is not much mentioned about
the "weather" that occurred during these early conferences,
some information is available. For example, during the April 6-8, 1842
conference held in Nauvoo, early members of the Church stated that "the
sun shone clear, warm and pleasant. The snow has nearly all disappeared...[and]
ice [is] about two feet [thick] on [the] Mississippi River." The first spring
conference that Church officials specifically termed a "general annual
conference," was held on April 6-8, 1848, in a log tabernacle at
Miller's Hollow in Kanesville, Iowa. Six months later, on October 8, 1848,
the Church held its fall conference in Salt Lake City, and officials called
this a "semi-annual general conference." From 1849 to 1887, most annual and semi-annual general conferences were held during April and October in the Salt Lake Valley. However, there were some exceptions. For instance, the 1850 Semi-Annual General Conference was held in Salt Lake on September 6-7, so that Church members could "travel in better weather." In 1877, the April conference was held in Saint George, and between 1885 and 1887, general conferences were held in Logan, Provo and Coalville, Utah. Later Conferences
in Salt Lake City, 1888-2012 Since 1888, all annual and semi-annual general conferences in the Church have been held on or next to Temple Square in Salt Lake City. Except for one instance--when a major flu epidemic forced the cancellation of the 1957 Semi-Annual General Conference--the Church has always held an annual and semi-annual general conference each year, and these have usually been held during the first week of April and October. Two-day general conference periods began in 1977. Analyzing the
Conference Weather of Salt Lake City In analyzing the
weather of past general conferences held in Salt Lake City, it was felt
that such an effort should start with the year 1888. There were two major
reasons for doing this: 1) prior to 1888, general conferences were occasionally
held in different areas where no recorded weather information was available,
and 2) after 1887, all general conferences were held in Salt Lake City
where daily precipitation and temperature data have been meticulously
kept since 1885. The daily weather
data used in this study was taken from the records of the only two official
observation stations of the National Weather Service for Salt Lake City.
These are: 1) Downtown Salt Lake City, that covers the period of 1888
to 1950, and 2) the Salt Lake International Airport, which covers the
period of 1951 to the present. Although the Downtown weather records extend
through 1954, this study utilizes Airport data after 1950 so that such
data could be correlated with the official 30-year climate normals of
1951-1980 and thereafter. Although there may be some individuals who question whether such weather data should ever be compared to or quoted as "conference weather"--since such data was not recorded at the specific site of conference (i.e. on or next to Temple Square), nevertheless, over an extended period of time such data does give a reasonable climatic view of the type of weather that has occurred in the Salt Lake Valley during April and October general conferences. Conference
Precipitation Climatological
records show that during the past 124 years (1888-2012), the majority
of all general conferences held in Salt Lake City--or 53% of all conferences
held (or 132 out of 248) have experienced one or more days of wet weather
during which measurable precipitation was recorded. However, when one
divides April conferences from October conferences, one finds that April
conferences usually experience wet weather (which correlates with the
fact that April is the wettest month of the year in the Salt Lake Valley),
while October conferences usually have dry weather. To be precise, 65%
of all April conferences (or 81 out of 125) have received measurable precipitation
(of more than a Trace) during one or more days that conference is held.
In comparison, 59% of all October conferences (or 72 out of 123) have
reported dry conditions (of .00 or only a Trace). Interestingly, the
chance of receiving measurable precipitation during any day of April conference
is 38%, while the chance of receiving measurable precipitation during
any day of October conference is 27%. Since 1888, the
wettest conference period on record occurred on April 3-6, 1921, when
1.19 inches of precipitation (i.e.: water content) fell during the four
days of conference. The wettest single conference day was on October 10,
1920, when 1.15 inches of precipitation fell. The snowiest conference
period was on April 2-6, 1955, when 12.9 inches of snow fell, and the
snowiest single conference day occurred during this same conference period--when
9.6 inches of snow was recorded on April 2, 1955. In contrast to the above, the only time there has been any measurable snowfall during October conference was in 1971, when less than an inch (0.7") of snow was noted. Conference
Temperatures Climatological
analysis shows that October conferences are usually warmer than April
conferences. For example, during October conferences, high temperatures
in the Salt Lake Valley averaged about 69 °F and low temperatures
averaged about 46 °F. In comparison, during April conferences high
temperatures averaged about 58 °F and low temperatures averaged about
37 °F. During the past
124 years (1888-2012), the warmest April conference day on record occurred
on April 5, 1959, when the thermometer reached 82°. The coldest April
conference morning on record happened on April 4, 1955, when the temperature
dropped to 20°. In addition, the coldest conference period reported
occurred on April 5-7, 1929, when high temperatures only averaged 41°,
and low temperatures averaged 25°. It also snowed each of the three
days of this April conference, with seven inches of snow recorded in downtown
Salt Lake City by the time conference was over. The warmest October
conference days recorded during the past 124 years (1888-2012), occurred
on October 7, 1979 and on October 2, 2012, when the temperature climbed
to 88°. The coldest October conference morning on record happened
on October 4, 1890, when the mercury fell to 30°. Also, the warmest
conference period on record occurred on October 2-3, 2010, when high temperatures
averaged 87°. One of the biggest temperature changes ever experienced during one conference period occurred during the Semi-Annual General Conference of October 7-9, 1960. The first day of that conference had a warm high temperature of 83°, the next day had a cool high of 60°, and the third and last day had a chilly high of only 41°--along with some light snowfall. Conference
Clouds, Wind and Humidity During the past
61 years (1951-2012), April conferences have usually been held under partly
cloudy to cloudy skies, while October conferences have generally seen
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. During the hours that general conferences are usually in session, relative humidity in the Salt Lake Valley (from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. during April and October) normally ranges from about 40% to 45%. Conclusions
on Conference Weather So what is "typical
conference weather"? According
to the past 124 years (1888-2012), April annual general conferences usually
experience partly to mostly cloudy skies, with measurable rain or snow
usually falling during at least one of the days in which conference is
in session. Morning temperatures are normally cold--in the mid 30's, with
afternoon temperatures usually on the cool side--in the upper 50's. In
essence, April general conferences are generally a time for "coat's
and umbrella's." In contrast, October semi-annual general conferences are usually mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with dry conditions and temperatures averaging about 10 degrees warmer than April conferences. During October general conferences, morning lows average in the mid 40's, while afternoon highs average in the upper 60's. So October conferences usually enjoy pleasant fall weather. 1983,
2003, 2011 and 2012 newspaper publications about Conference vs the Weather In the summer of 1983, R. Clayton Brough and David R. James published an in-depth study on L.D.S. conferences and the weather that occurred during these conferences. Information from this study--entitled "Conference vs the Weather"--was eventually reproduced in the L.D.S. Church News of October 2, 1983, under the front-page headline of "Weather: 50 Years at Conference Time". Also, on October 4, 2003, the Deseret News published an article entitled "Conference rain effect?"--which used information from this study; on March 28, 2011, the Salt Lake Tribune published an article entitled "Does it really always rain on Conference weekend?"--which used information from this study; and on October 4, 2012, the Mormon Times of the Deseret News published an article entitled "Sun or storms? General conference weather patterns are consistently Inconsistent"--which also used information from this study.. PDF of Conference vs the Weather and weather statistics for 1888-2012 |
